Research methodology

One number cannot describe every card market.

TCGMarketWatch builds raw history from CardTrader active offers and keeps verified graded sales separate. Every public comparison uses English evidence and preserves source, timestamp, printing, condition and currency.

Source roles

What each market observation means

Never blended silently

Raw reference

CardTrader

English Near Mint · EUR, ECB-normalized

The lowest observed valid English Near Mint offer. Thin markets with one or two active offers remain visible, but need at least three offers to enter signals and indices. Each card variant receives one accepted daily observation.

An ask is supply evidence, not proof that a buyer completed a sale at that price.

Verified sold

eBay graded

English graded cards · USD

Completed English graded comparables normalized by card printing, grading company, grade bucket and sale date.

Graded sold evidence is never blended into a raw-card reference.

Catalog identity

CardTrader

Sets, cards and variants

Canonical codes, official expansion chronology, images, rarity and variant identity.

Catalog availability alone does not prove that current market prices exist.

Editorial reporting

News Desk

Official sources · original English reporting

The desk prioritizes releases, rules, organized play, products and announcements with real collector relevance. Facts, dates and names are checked before each story is written as an original report.

Primary sources are cited and linked; publisher copy is never silently reproduced.

Observed data lifecycle

From provider response to research metric

ArchiveRaw provider response is preserved for audit and replay.
NormalizeGame, set, card, variant, English-market eligibility, condition and currency are separated.
ValidateIdentity, freshness, outlier, listing and source-quality rules are applied.
DeriveReturns, volatility, index, relative strength and signals use only valid observations.

Refresh policy

CardTrader catalog and live floorsDaily, staggered by game

CardTrader accepted closeOne immutable close per day

eBay graded radarHourly · nine serial title feeds · at most one uniquely matched current €200-floor card per game enters review

Alerts and portfolioEvery six hours / daily

Exchange rateLatest ECB reference

English raw daily observations, raw game-index closes and browser-verified graded sales form retained history. The Card API graded evidence remains available only while its source licence and retention entitlement permit it; rolling interface windows never override those source-specific rules.

Currency comparison

USD and EUR values are stored in their original currencies. Display conversion uses the latest available ECB reference rate and never rewrites the source observation.

Offer-gap calculations convert all observations into the selected display currency before comparison and retain the original source currencies for audit.

Glossary

Read the terminal consistently

Raw price: Ungraded English card reference for the specified printing and condition.
Floor: Lowest valid active English CardTrader ask in Near Mint condition. One or two observed offers are shown as a thin market; at least three are required for signals and indices. NO DATA means no valid active ask was observed.
Sold comparable: Observed completed English listing that passed card-printing and grade matching.
Liquidity depth: Count of valid active asks; it measures available supply, not sales velocity.
English Raw Index: A permanent daily game benchmark starting at 1,000. Each point uses qualified English CardTrader Near Mint variants and the historical EUR/USD rate known on that market date. Instruments require at least three valid offers and are weighted by the square root of price times visible offer depth, capped at 2%. Daily returns are chain-linked; missing quotes expire after three accepted closes, abnormal market-wide shock batches are quarantined, and new cards enter without changing the previous level.
Index level: A unitless benchmark level, not a price. The 1,000 launch value is a readable starting convention; points and percentage change show whether the qualified market basket rose or fell.
One-copy basket: The current sum of one qualified copy of every index constituent. It is shown as a monetary reference but does not determine the benchmark level by itself.
Market regime: Observed classification combining Market Index direction, advancing breadth and median price variability; it is not a forecast.
Reference concentration: Share of the summed current raw references represented by the top-priced 1% of cards. It is not market capitalization.
Excess return: Card normalized return minus its English game index return on common observed dates.
Relative risk: A card profile based on observed volatility percentile, active-listing depth and maximum drawdown versus the tracked market.
Position scenario: A user-entered acquisition and exit model including quantity, shipping and fees. Break-even and maximum entry are arithmetic outputs, not forecasts or fair values.
Confidence: Coverage score based on CardTrader history depth, active offer depth, price-ladder consistency and freshness.
1D signal: An early setup based on two accepted daily closes, a material absolute price move and valid active-offer depth. Confidence is capped below High.
7D signal: A developing setup available after eight accepted closes, using the exact price from seven calendar days earlier. Confidence remains capped at Medium.
30D confirmed: A confirmed setup available after 31 accepted closes, combining exact 7D and 30D returns, observed range position, volatility and liquidity.
Price shock: A daily move greater than 50% in either direction. It remains a review item and cannot automatically become Buy, Take-profit or Avoid.
Snapshot: A provider observation stored with source time, capture time, currency and provenance.

Apply the methodology to live dataInspect source evidence, history and relative performance on every supported card.

Open market indexes